Intelligence oversight Essay
MEK was born out of a student-group resistance to Shah Pahlavi more than 40 years ago. The founding members of MEK in Tehran considered the Shah as a U. S. puppet, and they believed that his westernization of Iran travelled against Iran’s traditional Islamic values. They will believed in a violent destruction of the Shah to return Iran to Islamic rule. In 1979, the group aligned on its own with Ayatollah Khomeini confident that it may run to get office following Shah Pahlavi’s exile, although Ayatollah Khomeini succeeded in overthrowing the Shah and he crushed any level of resistance to his new govt.
Since 1979, MEK has become trying to gain the opportunity to run for office in Iran’s government by simply shifting forces and violently attacking the forces, which may have prevented their political aspirations (Goulka 2009). In the year 2003, the group publically denounced violence so that they can foster global political support, but its place on the Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) list is usually blocking it from obtaining its desired global support.
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According to MEK, it includes “strived intended for freedom and human rights, first up against the despotic rule of Shah, and now the theocratic tyranny of the ayatollahs” (MEK in. d. ). It is “an anti-fundamentalist Muslim organization which believes in a democratic, progressive, and tolerant meaning of Islam, according that elections and public suffrage are the single indicators of political legitimacy. The PMOI endeavors to get a secular, democratic, and nonnuclear republic, and is also committed to totally free elections, sexuality equality, and abolition of most discrimination against national and religious minorities” (MEK d. d. ) ” nonnuclear ” is actually a key thought for america and other traditional western powers.
Iran has increasingly taunted the world with its indivisible program and refuses to deescalate military stress. In strong statements of aggression, news alone, Serbia has released two fresh missiles, a great air protection site, and a number of ultra-fast firearm boats built to zip in battle against larger traditional western fleets. In a twist of fate, MEK’s future may well lie in the hands states. The United States has until August 1, 2012 to decide if this will delist MEK from the FTO. If perhaps MEK is definitely delisted it will eventually enjoy far more freedom of movement around the world and it will be able to lawfully receive funds from U. S. primarily based sympathizers.
It is not unreasonable to think that the U. S. will delist MEK in an effort to challenge the Government of iran, much just like Saddam Hussein offered MEK a house in 1986 to undermine Usa during the Iran Iraq war. Leadership, Money and Capacities Most of MEK’s original leadership was arrested and executed in 1971, although Massoud Rajavi escaped fatality and continues to be a leader of MEK. Nevertheless he is actually not seen widely since 2003, his partner, Maryam Rajavi, “is the public face of the MEK in her role because president-elect with the National Authorities of Level of resistance of Iran” (Jones 2012).
In the past 4 decades the group is using several techniques to raise cash for its marketing campaign. Some strategies have made the group famous and add towards the list of causes that the U. S. and lots of other international locations have grouped it as being a Foreign Terrorist Organization. MEK has long been skilled in deceptiveness and has used that skill to affect its pay for raising attempts.
For example , it is solicitation of funds intended for Iranian asile, child wellbeing, and children’s medical companies proven to be deceitful (FBI in. d. ). Until 2003, MEK had a substantial armory due to its previous relationship with Saddam Hussein. The inventory often included cannon, tanks, plane, rocket launchers, rifles, mortars, shells, rockets, land puits, and bullets (FBI and. d. ). In the year 2003, the United States bombed MEK camps and fort based on their very own relationship to Saddam Hussein and the concept that they asked a significant threat with their armaments. MEK users no longer have got easy access to such large stockpiles of arms.
MEK is now facing deportation from the Iraqi camp Ashraf and remains disarmed. Operating Angles, Support Bases, Strengths MEK has relocated its hq over the years being a necessary component to survival. Formerly founded in Tehran, this moved to Rome after the 1979 Iranian Innovation.
The group had allied with the Ayatollah Khomeini, but Khomeini forced the group out in anxiety about opposition. In 1986 Saddam Hussein invited the group to relocate to camp Ashraf. Iraq was at war with Iran, and relocating the group from Paris to Iraq was Hussein’s technique of undermining Usa. At the start with the U. H. led battle in Iraq under Procedure Iraqi Freedom, the group was categorized as foe combatants and subsequently confined to Camp Ashraf, where about 3, 500 MEK today live (Carter 2011). The brand new government of Iraq provides declared that all members of MEK must leave the nation, and the U. N. happens to be working to resettle the group elsewhere.
Intended for the moment MEK enjoys limited support via sympathizers around the world, but it is stateless which is both a strength and a weak point. The U. N., citing international law, will not allow the Iraqi federal government to power members to leave War or pressure repatriation right up until members include a suitable place to live. This predicament provides MEK some publicity and sympathy because of their cause, nevertheless Iraq’s willpower to get rid of MEK could hardly have occurred by a more serious time.
With June 2013 elections approaching, increasing tension with traditional western military capabilities, and a great imminent Israeli preemptive reach against Iranian nuclear goals, MEK management must work swiftly to make sure its place in the 2013 elections. PART II – RED CREW ANALYSIS Since MEK desires a relaxing, tolerant Serbia that can just be legitimized by means of free elections and general public suffrage, this cannot manage the nation by force. Therefore , MEK’s choices are limited and it should patiently wait for the 2013 elections regardless of growing concern of military actions and financial sanctions.
Since President Ahmadinejad continues to elevate military anxiety with american nations and Israel, through missile, elemental, and nautico programs (Torbati 2012). MEK leadership must carefully calculate how to win popular Iranian support, community support, and financial backing – all without ever appearing to become influenced simply by western powers as prior Iranian leaders had. Very important to the analytic process is actually a key presumptions check. This task allows experts to obviously document the start point with their cognitive map as well as enabling time to consider information that challenges cognitive biases.
The key presumptions must be listed in such a means that experts feel like MEK leaders could if looking to decide how to realize their mentioned goal of taking control of the Iranian government. Under is a list of key assumptions in this Reddish Team Analysis. Previous Failures. All previous attempts to manage government have got failed beginning with the overthrow of the Shah in 1979. This kind of assumption is crucial because the MEK believed the Ayatollah Khomeini was their ally.
These people were betrayed. They will banded with each other only to become exiled inside two years and a lot of members had been arrested and executed while Khomeini consolidated power. The knowledge likely taught MEK to distrust any potential allies within the current regime.
Great Violence. During the 1960s the Shah applied force and violence against government level of resistance. Uprisings in the early 1970s culminated in the exile with the Shah, although into the eighties MEK fought against the new Government of iran. During the Iraq-Iran war that began more than 30 years ago, MEK completed just north of Baghdad and fought against a cross border battle with the paperwork regime pertaining to twenty even more years. Only at the time for the 100 years did MEK publicly denounce violence and terrorist techniques.
The significance is the fact, while MEK members happen to be accepting of risk and physical violence, they have matured and recognize that they do not operate in a vacuum. MEK knows the need for global acceptance. HUMINT Value.
MEK can offer HUMINT to the U. S. No other organization with comprehensive knowledge of Iran and its army and political system is happy to provide this sort of information to western power. The U. S. has received extremely limited success setting up or enrolling agents in Iran as a result of extreme overview that outsiders face, and CIA informants are usually learned due to poor tradecraft (Hosenball 2011). MEK however , has family, close friends, sympathizers and safe houses inside Iran.
Too, since the U. S. invasion of War in the year 2003 MEK has brought training, tools and funds to carry out episodes inside Iran and to work together with U. S. and Israeli cleverness services (Joshi 2012). MEK’s HUMINT value is possibly the most important feature for american powers. MEK leadership recognizes the power they will hold and must leveraging it properly.
Knowledge of U. S. Tactics Techniques and Procedures. MEK leaders are aware of U. H. TTPs on the small unit tactics gain levels through business branch policymaking. They will use the American and Israeli fears of a nuclear informed Iran whilst leveraging their very own HUMINT and political value to have an effect on their delisting from the FTO.
Once delisted they are able to acquire more money from international sources, thus requiring significantly less U. S i9000. support and can become fewer responsive to U. S. needs. Western Support: Critical For Funding, Opposite of Ideology Becoming listed on the U. S. Overseas Terrorist Organization list impedes MEK’s auto financing efforts. To acquire power they have to be delisted – decade long effort thus far. The members have got cooperated with Israeli and U. H. intelligence services since the year 2003 in an effort to gain support and take over the political regime in Iran, but its initial ideology was very much against any traditional western influence.
MEK must physical exercise extreme caution to make certain the group does not seem to be another puppet regime in the U. H and especially certainly not in cooperation with Israel. If threatened with beat, the current plan will likely make an effort to depict MEK as a puppet regime, and if the U. S. seems to lose influence it may also try to advertise MEK’s cooperation in an effort to lower its trustworthiness among Iranians. Enormity in the Situation. MEK is currently stateless.
Though the U. N. provides petitioned several governments to take MEK people, most possess declined to simply accept them. With nowhere to visit MEK can be desperate to gain power in Iran as it belongs to simply no other state. If they will fail the Iranian regime will likely execute them, inspite of President Ahmadinejad’s amnesty offer. Data Collection Options Of the numerous collection alternatives the United States offers at its removal, a handful stand out as being the the majority of practical.
HUMINT may be the greatest collection choice because it offers an inside check out MEK plus the status in the Iranian nuclear and defense programs in addition to the mentality and plans of regime commanders. For example , an undercover agent, code named Wally, joined up with the Revolutionary Guard in the 1980s and gave the CIA plans, ideology, weaponry and so on, and he was able to generate several even more members from the Revolutionary Safeguard to turn renseigner for the CIA (Zucchino 2012). OSINT is another really useful collection option, which will provide in depth atmospherics that help depict the support, or perhaps lack thereof, of the general public to the current and conceivable successor regimes.
OSINT can also offer information concerning Iran’s defensive and offensive capabilities since depicted in the recent thought that Iran has cloned a fleet of ultra-fast gun boats. Formerly produced in Great britain, the Bradstone Challenger (Bladerunner) is a speedboat with a revolutionary hull design that provides it superb stability by high rates. Iran illicitly purchased a Bladerunner last season, reverse manufactured the design, and manufactured a unique fleet that this Navy modified to kick off torpedoes and missiles in full velocity.
The Bladerunner fleet, along with “an assortment of heavily provided small create, including unmanned high-speed Ya Mahdi boats, Bavar two flying motorboats, Seraj-1 excessive patrol boats and Zolfaghar fast strike craft” (Stock 2012) creates a significant danger to the Strait of Hormuz and american naval pushes with bigger and sluggish vessels. SIGINT and MASINT will likely need to wait until armed service confrontation commences in order to be relevant. MEK’s tools inventory is very limited, so SIGINT and MASINT should not be a top priority.
GEOINT is pertinent in that it depicts the correlation of key terrain to tactical targets and political issues. For example , GEOINT can depict which routes MEK would likely take in in an attempt to transit to Tehran or perhaps flee War in other techniques. It also assists answer contingency operation inquiries such as, “what if MEK takes power over the armed forces and efforts to hold the Strait of Hormuz ransom? ” Towards a more tactical situation GEOINT provides detailed sizes of hideouts and properties for the U. S i9000. to plan an strike should the need arise.
Use of the Intellect Community The CIA is the foremost is the best firm to use to take care of collection on MEK. The agency has more than half a century of experience in working with resources and is finest trained in taking care of counterintelligence and misinformation techniques. Already, the CIA did with MEK members as 2002 when ever MEK publicized Iran’s subway Uranium enrichment program. Schooling MEK members in tradecraft techniques and supporting all their cross-border agitation, destabilization tactics permits the CIA to income a web proxy war with Iran when strengthening their relationship and gaining even more human brains on both equally MEK and Iran.
No other firm within the United states of america has the resources to foster this type of relationship with MEK. Most Effective Intelligence Analysis Approaches The successful intelligence technique you can use for considering MEK and forecasting it is actions is always to begin with Evaluation of Competing Hypotheses and follow those results with all the Devil’s Advocation method. Research of Rivalling Hypotheses. VERY SINGLE is ideal for assessing MEK because there are diverse characteristics involved in predicting MEK activities. Considering that the U. T. must opt to keep or perhaps delist MEK from the FTO on October 1, 2012, ACH presents decision makers with a documented line of reasoning to support an Intelligence Forecast.
Devil’s Advocacy. The prevailing opinion in Buenos aires is that MEK has transformed from a militant group to a politics group during the past decade and you will be a more traditional western friendly program if it comes to power. But what if MEK is playing the west to get power today, while privately planning to propagate its 1979 revolutionary ideology across the Middle section East and North Africa in an attempt to reestablish Persian prominence?
It seems that the west is focused first upon countering a nuclear risk and second on countering any obstructing of the Hormuz Strait. Simply no additional content regarding Serbia or MEK have received much publicity seeing that 1979. Conclusion MEK is known as a wild cards in the Iran standoff.
America and other western powers, and Israel, need to carefully consider how to proceed with MEK relationships. The organization shows a history of fixing allies in order to advance the goals, making it predictable in the sense that they can become counted on do anything to survive and take control of the Iranian government. To thoroughly MEK besides may mean dealing with a indivisible armed Iran later, and also to support MEK may indicate dealing with a provoked Iran at this point.
No matter the decision, each carries its own significance for U. S. foreign policy. Wa must ultimately decide between lesser of two evils. Bibliography F. “Seven Plead Guilty to Featuring Material Support to Chosen Foreign Terrorist Organization. ” FBI. http://www.fbi.gov/losangeles/press-releases/2009/la042809a.htm (accessed July 29, 2012).
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